Projections, predictions, forecasts, educated guesses… In fact any statement about the future is likely to be inaccurate at best—or even erroneous. This is truer still for complex systems like humanity with all its moving parts and random, chaotic behaviours. But people are naturally interested in the future, what to expect, and how to prepare for it—both in caution and as opportunity.
Global Future Research’s Insight Series is about the Big Questions facing humanity. Having now published 10 Insights, we can project (somewhat realistically) what might happen in 2026 across our four domains: frontier technologies, sustainability, humanities and cosmology. What we find is that some topics are advancing rapidly while others evolve slowly over longer timeframes, with period step changes.
Perhaps the fastest moving topic is Artificial Intelligence (AI)which features as our Big Question in Insight 3: Will AI supersede human intelligence – and what will be the consequences for the human species? In 2023 we concluded that, yes, this outcome is likely—but perhaps not for a few decades. In 2025 we found the horizon for superior human intelligence is shortening, as progress towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and subsequently Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) is speeding up. This acceleration is due to an international ‘AI race’ as the winner anticipates gaining great advantage over its competitors. The AI race will play out strongly in 2026 as investments climb astronomically. However, this pervasive ‘technological revolution’ is proceeding largely without regulation and safeguards, leading to probable widespread AI-induced disruption in 2026 in most facets of life – whether education and jobs, business, military capabilities, surveillance, or travel.
All frontier technologies are progressing rapidly, including genetic engineering, nanotechnology, information technology and space travel. Converging with AI, these technologies are re-imagining humans, as described in Insight 4: Future Humans – where are we heading?We found that transhumanism is advancing rapidly, as are AI-powered simulated humans or humanoid robots. In 2026 we are likely to see the beginning of the long-awaited roll out of humanoid robots across the human sphere.
Another fast-moving arena is geopolitical stability, addressed in 2025 in Insight 9: Collapse – Is modern civilisation unravelling? We found that there are two competing megatrends at play – one recognising the huge progress that has been made over the last century in human living conditions and longevity; and the second focussing on rising existential risks. In reconciling these two competing megatrends we noted that whilst beneficial scientific advancements and humanitarian programs will bring future benefits, the manifestation of any one existential risk could undo all the good work. In 2025 the Doomsday Clock was set at 89 seconds to midnight – its closest ever – and is unlikely to improve in the coming year. In 2026 the key risks that have a high probability of escalating are AI disruption, dangerous climate change and ecosystem decline, while the risks that could escalate further are geopolitical destabilisation and nuclear war.
The Big Questions moving at a slower pace include our cosmic topics: the fate of Planet Earth, the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligent life, understanding how the universe works, and human origins.
Insight 1: The Ultimate fate of Planet Earth concluded that Earth probably has a long journey ahead of billions or many billions of years, with envelopment, or otherwise, by our Sun, when it begins its Red Giant phase in around 5 billion years–a critical and uncertain juncture. However, the longevity of life on Earth will most likely be determined by more near-term events.
The probing Big Question Is there intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, which we explored in Insight 2,has advocates on both sides – some favouring flourishing life across the universe while others suggesting intelligent life is rare. In our Insight we tend towards rarity on the balance of probabilities, but leave the question open to our rapidly advancing cosmic knowledge.
Our Big Question in Insight 10: How did the universe begin and how will it end?argues that there is much more to know and understand before this question can be answered. We found that the currently popular Lambda-CDM standard model of cosmology, incorporating a Big Bang origin, does an impressive job in explaining cosmic phenomena, but there are possibly too many unknowns, like dark matter and dark energy, and possibly too many theoretical bolt-ons, for the current theory not to be superseded in the future.
In Insight 8: Human origins – where did we come from and how did we become who we are?we saw that the earliest hominin fossils go back some 7 million years, but our species, Homo sapiens, appeared only around 300,000 years ago as the sole survivor of as many as 25 different human species. Our evolutionary history, including our brain design, was fashioned significantly over the last 2 million years, 99.5% of which was spent in hunter-gatherer lifestyles, with urban civilisation a relatively modern phenomenon. Our brains today reflect deep instincts, tribal biases and rational cognition that play out day-to-day in a mix of behaviours at individual and societal scales.
In 2026 we can envision incremental advances in our understanding of the cosmos and human origins, with a small but not insignificant chance of major theoretical or observational breakthroughs.
Our sustainability Big Questions covered the water, biodiversity and climate crises. Insight 6: Global warming – are we playing with fire?found that all ten critical indicators reported in our 2025 annual update are worsening, and half are worsening at an accelerating pace. Climate change is the most urgent sustainability threat, with climate-related human deaths, costs and displaced populations on the rise, and environmental and social impacts escalating. Our response to date is too weak to avoid dangerous climate change in the future. Biodiversity loss is unfolding as the Sixth Mass Extinction of Species event–this time human-induced–while water crises of too little, too much or too polluted are becoming more prevalent. All the sustainability domains of water, biodiversity and climate change are forecast to worsen in 2026.
So, for 2026, should we be optimistic or pessimistic? On the positive side there is hope for peaceful ends to major conflicts, rapid adoption of low carbon technologies, and the fact that many individuals and countries are still wanting to collaborate to solve global problems. On the pessimistic side there are escalating existential risks, attempts to upend the global rules-based order, signs of increasing imperialism, the inflaming of political polarisation and racial divisions, and universal democracy backsliding.
2025 was a turbulent year – and we forecast that turbulence will also define 2026.